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December corn hit new contract lows after private yield estimates from Allendale, INTL FC Stone and Informa came in bearish because they excluded the risk of an early frost. Wheat followed corn lower.
The crop is 1-2 weeks behind normal, with more than 17M acres of corn not yet at dough stage.
Yield estimates trimmed by private analysts weigh on corn and wheat prices, but the late crop leaves frost risk that could cap the downside for feed grains.
realagriculture.comBrennan TurnerSep 7, 2019After 357 past bearish weather events, Corn moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.3%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 363 past bearish weather events, Soybeans moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (42% higher; middle half -2.5% to +1.1%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 334 past bearish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.9% to +1.7%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Bearish private yield estimates that ignored early frost risk pushed December corn to contract lows heading into the move, adding supply-side selling pressure.
