
Soybean and grain futures fell midweek as weak long liquidation continued. Forecasts for better Midwest rain prompted the selling, with November soybeans down 29 1/4 cents to $12.65 and August soybean meal down $6.30 to $393.70.
Improved rainfall prospects for stressed Midwest crops ease weather risk premium, which pressures soybean, meal and corn prices unless dryness returns.
After 363 past bearish weather events, Soybeans moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (42% higher; middle half -2.5% to +1.1%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 118 past bearish weather events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.8% over 5 sessions (35% higher; middle half -3.2% to +0.4%), and -1.6% over 20.
After 357 past bearish weather events, Corn moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.3%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.