
Corn harvest is running ahead of the five-year average, with 13% of the crop harvested by Sept. 20 versus 11% normally, and soybeans are at 12% versus 8%.
Weather still affects getting the crop into the bin, while Brazil is just starting its growing season for the next global supply.
Harvest progress and Brazilian planting conditions shape expectations for new-crop supply, which influences near-term corn and soybean price direction.
After 445 past neutral weather events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 324 past neutral weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.7%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.