
The 2025 soybean harvest was well advanced across the Midwest by early October, with corn mostly mature. Growing degree units ran about 15% above average, and drought expanded in parts of the region.
Fast maturity and drought expansion are mixed signals, with timely harvest limiting weather risk while dryness adds some yield concern.
After 445 past neutral weather events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 324 past neutral weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.7%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.