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Grain markets had been falling for weeks on the US-China trade war, Canada-China tensions and large supplies. A USDA crop progress report on May 20, 2019 showed planting far behind schedule, triggering a rally as funds cut net short positions.
Planting delays threaten yield and acreage, and fund short-covering drives prices higher. Feed buyers face firmer corn and soybean meal costs.
agweek.comAlex Norton, Beeson Inc.May 19, 2019After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
The May 20 USDA crop progress report showing planting far behind triggered a rally as funds cut net shorts, explaining the sharp one-day jump.
The USDA crop progress report showing planting far behind triggered fund short-covering, which sets up the weather-driven rally in soybeans.
