
Corn Belt producers reported solid yield potential after welcome late-July rains, though heat has returned to the mid and lower Midwest. Pro Farmer members noted dryness in parts of Iowa and Illinois and early reports of southern rust and tar spot.
Heat returning during soybean's critical growth stage and the early appearance of crop diseases both add yield risk. Together they support a modest price premium for corn and soybeans.
After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.