
Recent dry weather has raised concern over Brazil's safrinha corn in Parana, where 39% of the crop is filling grain and soil moisture is declining. Farmers in the northwest and center-west expect reduced yields, especially on sandy soils.
Agroconsult raised its national safrinha estimate to 102.4 million tons, and about 20 million tons in four southern and central states could still be hit by adverse weather.
Continued dryness in Parana, a major safrinha state, could cut export-available corn and support prices. The higher national estimate partly offsets that risk.
After 1,465 past bullish weather events, CORN moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.