
Hot, dry conditions in Brazil's Center West have delayed the start of the rainy season and soybean planting. Brazil had planted less than 3% of its expected soybean acreage, and Mato Grosso was about 15% behind its usual pace, with some early seedings possibly needing replanting.
Brazil's late planting could limit its early-2021 soybean exports to China and lift demand for U.S. beans.
A slow Brazilian planting season tightens the outlook for early-2021 export supply, which supports U.S. soybean demand and prices. A late second-crop corn planting window also adds some upside risk for corn.
After 1,079 past bullish weather events, SOY moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 1,465 past bullish weather events, CORN moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.