
El Nino has driven hot, dry weather in central Brazil, lowering soybean yield projections. Temperatures in Mato Grosso and Argentina's soybean regions were among the hottest and driest in 30-plus years for the week ending February 3.
Lower soybean yields in central Brazil and Argentina reduce crush and export supply, while the dry conditions threaten the second corn crop, supporting soybean meal and corn prices.
After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 453 past bullish weather events, Soybean Meal moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.7%), and +0.5% over 20.
After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.