
La Nina has brought drought to Rio Grande do Sul, where 45 municipalities are under a state of emergency and corn has suffered a third year of dryness. Meanwhile, heavy rain is forecast for central Brazil, where Minas Gerais authorities warn of very heavy rain.
Losses in southern Brazil corn and soybean production, combined with flooding risk in central Brazil, reduce expected supplies and support feed grain and soymeal prices.
After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 453 past bullish weather events, Soybean Meal moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.7%), and +0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.