
A prolonged drought in Rio Grande do Sul is limiting Brazil's soybean output potential. Farmers' group Aprosoja-RS said the worst case could cut the state's crop by 40% to 12.6 million tonnes from a 21 million tonne potential, putting national estimates above 150 million tonnes at risk.
A sharp cut in Brazil's southern soybean crop would reduce export availability and support soybean and meal prices.
After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 453 past bullish weather events, Soybean Meal moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.7%), and +0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.