
Dry weather is limiting soybean development in Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil's southernmost state, while excessive rain threatens early harvest work in central regions. Brazil's 2025 soy crop is expected to exceed 170 million tons, with Rio Grande do Sul needed to reach the record target.
Drought in Rio Grande do Sul puts part of Brazil's record crop at risk, which would tighten export supplies and support soybean prices.
After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 453 past bullish weather events, Soybean Meal moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.7%), and +0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.