
La Niña is expected to develop as early as October and last until February 2026, with NOAA giving a 71% chance. Meteorologists warn of reduced rainfall and drought risk in Rio Grande do Sul and Santa Catarina, which could hit soybean, coffee and fruit crops.
A La Niña drought risk in southern Brazil threatens the 2025/26 soybean crop and would tighten soymeal and soy oil supply, supporting prices.
After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 453 past bullish weather events, Soybean Meal moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.7%), and +0.5% over 20.
After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.