◂ Event Timeline

Oct 6, 2022WEATHERBrazil

Is La Nina Returning to Southern Brazil?

DTN meteorologists expect a period of dryness for southern Brazil from late October into November, consistent with La Nina tendencies. Rainfall has been above normal since winter across much of southern Brazil and Argentina.

WHY IT MATTERS

Expected dryness in southern Brazil raises risk to soybean and corn yields, which could support feed grain and meal prices if it materializes.

AFFECTSSoybeans▲Corn▲

SOURCE
dtnpf.comJohn BaranickOct 6, 2022

Price reaction & history

Soybeans▲bullishSO FAR1d -0.9%5d +1.9%20d +5.1%

After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.

Nov 18, 2021A Return to Normal La Nina Pattern Unfavorable for Argentina, Southern Brazil-0.8%
Jan 22, 2024Showers Returning to Central Brazil-0.3%
Oct 17, 2024La Nina’s Return Could Herald Weak Brazilian Corn, Soybean Crops | CZ app+1.8%
Sep 15, 2025La Niña looms over Brazil, raising fears of drought in the South-0.0%
Dec 19, 2018Heat and Dryness in Southern Brazil-4.2%

Corn▲bullishSO FAR1d -0.8%5d +0.8%20d +0.2%

After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.

Nov 18, 2021A Return to Normal La Nina Pattern Unfavorable for Argentina, Southern Brazil+0.5%
Jan 22, 2024Showers Returning to Central Brazil-0.1%
Aug 18, 2021La Niña’s Likely Return Could Impact Brazil, US Corn-1.4%
Oct 17, 2024La Nina’s Return Could Herald Weak Brazilian Corn, Soybean Crops | CZ app+2.1%
Sep 15, 2025La Niña looms over Brazil, raising fears of drought in the South+5.1%

Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.

Soybeans SOY · GP ▸

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Corn CORN · GP ▸

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