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DTN reports a month of very dry conditions in southern Brazil, with Parana, the second-largest soybean state, hit hardest; December rainfall through Dec. 17 was 70% to nearly 90% below normal.
Some crop loss is likely during pod filling, and some private forecasts of a 130 million ton crop are seen as unlikely.
Heat and drought during critical pod-filling in Parana point to actual yield losses, reducing Brazilian export supply and supporting soybean and meal prices.
dtnpf.comMike PalmerinoDec 19, 2018After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 453 past bullish weather events, Soybean Meal moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.7%), and +0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
