
Brazil has been hotter and drier than normal in central and eastern regions in early October, while southern Brazil received rain. Climatempo forecasts a hot, dry first half of October in central Brazil, with rain expected in the second half.
If rain does not return in late October, soybean yields and safrinha corn planting could be delayed, which would support soybean and corn prices.
After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.