
Conab's March crop report warned that rainfall in southern Brazil during March-April-May could fall below normal, potentially hurting safrinha corn. Farmers have planted 94% of the safrinha crop, and a 60% chance of La Niña persisting raises the risk of early frost in late May.
Below-normal rain or early frost in Brazil's safrinha belt would cut the second corn crop, tightening export supplies and supporting corn and DDGS prices.
After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 156 past neutral events of any kind, Brazilian Real (BRL per USD) moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (56% higher; middle half -0.9% to +1.4%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.