
Farmers in Parana had planted 47% of their intended first-crop corn by the week of September 19, with 6% of soybeans planted. Wet soils are slowing planting in far southern Parana, and last season's safrinha corn yields were below expectations due to dry weather and leafhopper infestation.
Slow planting from excess moisture adds some weather risk to early Brazilian corn, a mildly bullish factor. The effect is limited because the main corn crop is planted later.
After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.