
Brazil's first corn crop was 14% harvested as of late January, versus 12% a year earlier. Drought cut Rio Grande do Sul's expected output from 4-5 million tons to about 2.5 million.
Safrinha corn was 14% planted, with Mato Grosso ahead of its average pace.
Drought losses in the first crop make the safrinha harvest critical to Brazil's 2021/22 corn supply, and farmers have a strong incentive to plant more. Corn export availability depends on that second crop.
After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.