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The dry season in central Brazil appears to be starting earlier than normal, with many areas receiving no significant rain for 15 to 25 days. About 33% of safrinha corn is under moisture stress, and Inmet forecasts below-normal April-June rainfall.
Growing moisture stress during pollination and grain fill raises the risk of lower safrinha yields, supporting corn prices.
After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.