
Corn markets appeared to ignore stressful Midwest weather, focusing instead on global recession and food-inflation worries. June rainfall was roughly 48-55% of average in Minnesota, Illinois and Indiana, with severe moisture deficits expected going into July pollination.
Severe moisture deficits heading into pollination raise yield risk for corn, a key feed grain, even though the market has so far discounted it.
After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.