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A third consecutive La Niña is developing for the 2022/23 South American season, typically bringing hot, dry conditions to Argentina and southern Brazil. Southern Brazil has so far seen good rain and soil moisture, while Argentina has had a cold, dry winter with frost damage to winter wheat and delayed corn planting.
La Niña increases the risk of drought in Argentina and southern Brazil, which could limit soybean and corn supply and support prices. Current benign conditions in southern Brazil limit near-term upside.
ukragroconsult.comSep 19, 2022After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
