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Forecast models show heavy rain possible in parts of Brazil, including up to 12 inches in northern São Paulo, while Argentina faces dryness. USDA projects Brazil's 2024/25 soybean crop at 169 million metric tons, up 16 million from last year.
Excess rain could delay Brazilian harvesting and planting, adding weather risk to a record crop, while Argentine dryness threatens soybean and corn output. Net effect supports prices if the weather disrupts supply.
agriculture.comSophie WinkelpleckJan 1, 2025After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 453 past bullish weather events, Soybean Meal moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.7%), and +0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
