
Central Brazil had one of its hottest and driest third weeks of January in 30 years, deepening the drought in key soybean areas. Forecasts call for a wet fourth week in Mato Grosso, which could slow soybean harvest and delay safrinha corn planting.
Southern Brazil is forecast to turn drier.
Delayed safrinha planting raises the risk of a poor corn crop during the dry season, and continued soybean crop cuts support prices.
After 1,465 past bullish weather events, CORN moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 1,079 past bullish weather events, SOY moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.