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Central Brazil has had almost no rain since mid-April, ending the wet season more than two weeks early. Soil moisture is being depleted before the dry season begins, and the safrinha corn crop depends on remaining moisture to finish grain fill.
Early moisture shortfall during grain fill threatens yields in the main safrinha belt, supporting corn prices.
After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.