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Conab's December crop report warned that 2022/23 soybean and corn yields could be hurt by below-normal rainfall in central, east-central and southern Brazil during December through February. Below-normal rain is forecast for parts of central Brazil, southwestern Mato Grosso do Sul and Rio Grande do Sul.
The article notes that the rainy season peak normally supplies enough moisture, so timing and heat matter most.
A possible moisture deficit during the pod-filling period could cut Brazilian soybean and corn output, supporting prices for both crops. The risk depends on rainfall timing, so the impact is uncertain.
ukragroconsult.comDec 14, 2022After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
