
Rainfall across Brazil and Argentina was spotty from November 20 to 26, with deficits expected to persist over a large part of Brazil. Forecasts show improved chances of showers in southern Brazil and Argentina's soybean region, while the northwest of Sao Paulo stays very dry.
Persistent dryness during the critical growing period raises the risk of lower corn and soybean yields in Brazil, supporting export prices and tightening the outlook for feed ingredients.
After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 453 past bullish weather events, Soybean Meal moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.7%), and +0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.