
Soil moisture deficits of 1 to 4 inches have developed across the western and central Midwest, including Nebraska, Kansas, Missouri, Iowa, and Illinois. Thirty-day precipitation totals are at most half of normal across much of the southern Midwest, while the north-central region has been wet.
Dryness during planting and early growth in key Midwest states raises the risk of yield losses for corn and soybeans, which can lift futures. The wet north-central areas partly offset the concern.
After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.