Soil moisture in Mato Grosso is the lowest in 10 years, and forecasts show very little rain for the first half of September. Soybean planting is permitted from September 7, but farmers may be unable to start fieldwork, which could also delay safrinha corn planting.
Delayed soybean planting in Brazil's largest producing state compresses the planting and harvest window and raises weather risk, supporting soybean and corn prices.
After 1,079 past bullish weather events, SOY moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 1,465 past bullish weather events, CORN moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.