
Brazil's soybean planting season is beginning, but a forecast from Inmet calls for dry weather in coming weeks in Mato Grosso and other southern soy-producing areas. Sources say delayed planting could reduce yields and lower USDA's projected 123 million tons for 2019-20.
Lower Brazilian soybean output would tighten supplies for China, which is already buying heavily from Brazil during the trade dispute, and could raise Brazilian grain prices.
After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.