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The May 19 U.S. Drought Monitor showed 76.1% of the country in abnormal dryness or drought, with 62.4% in D1 or worse. Drought coverage was unchanged for corn, soybean and winter wheat acres, while 63% of the cattle herd was in drought conditions.
Recent rains eased drought in the Midwest and deep South, though hail and tornado damage occurred in the Plains.
Dryness covering 70% of winter wheat acres and most of the cattle herd supports HRW wheat and feed costs, but the slight Midwest improvement is mildly bearish for corn and soy risk premium.
profarmer.comSpencer LangfordMay 21, 2026After 322 past bullish weather events, KWHEAT moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -2.5% to +3.2%), and +1.0% over 20.
After 445 past neutral weather events, CORN moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 324 past neutral weather events, SOY moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.7%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 80 past bullish weather events, LCATTLE moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -0.8% to +1.3%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
