
Day one of the Pro Farmer Crop Tour showed drought-damaged corn in South Dakota, with barren stalks and early shutdown, while soybeans were more resilient after recent rains. In Ohio, scouts struggled with mud and uneven crop maturity.
USDA's August forecast put South Dakota corn at 151 bu. per acre, down 20 bu. from 2025.
A sharp drop in South Dakota corn yield and the USDA forecast cut both reduce regional supply and support corn prices. Resilient soybeans limit the upside for soybeans.
After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 324 past neutral weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.7%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.