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The NOAA Climate Prediction Center gives an 82% chance that El Niño forms within three months and persists into winter 2026-2027. USDA's Brad Rippey says El Niño could bring drought relief to the Southern Plains later in the year but is unlikely to affect the Corn Belt this summer.
The pattern is expected to bring tougher conditions to South America, Australia, Brazil and India.
Expected El Niño dryness in Australia, Brazil and India could tighten global grain and oilseed supplies, supporting export prices and feed-ingredient costs later in the year.
profarmer.comDebbie CarlsonMay 21, 2026After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 453 past bullish weather events, Soybean Meal moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.7%), and +0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
