
The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange cut its 2024/25 soybean forecast by about 1 million tonnes to 48.6 million metric tons on April 11 because of drought, with northeastern Argentina yields down 22%. The national corn forecast was held at 49 million metric tons even though some areas face yield drops of 40%.
A smaller Argentine soybean crop reduces export supply of soybeans and meal, supporting prices for protein meal used in feed rations.
After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 453 past bullish weather events, Soybean Meal moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.7%), and +0.5% over 20.
After 445 past neutral weather events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.