Chicago soybean futures hit a two-week high as hot, dry weather forecasts for the U.S. Midwest through early August threatened crop development. Wheat fell after an agreement to reopen Ukrainian maritime grain exports moved forward.
Weather risk supports soybean prices during a critical growth stage, while the Ukrainian export deal adds bearish pressure on wheat supplies.
After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 445 past neutral weather events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 334 past bearish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.9% to +1.7%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
On July 27, wheat fell as the agreement to reopen Ukrainian maritime exports advanced, which falls directly within the 5-day window.