
The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange forecasts Argentina's 2024/25 soybean crop at 52 million tonnes, corn at 47 million and wheat at 18.6 million. LSEG cut its wheat forecast by 1% to 17.2 million tonnes because of dry conditions and heat in southern Buenos Aires province.
Moisture deficits during key crop stages reduce wheat yield potential and tighten Argentine wheat supply for export. This supports wheat prices, while the soybean and corn forecasts are largely unchanged.
After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 324 past neutral weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.7%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 445 past neutral weather events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.