
AgResource cut its estimate of Brazil's 2024/25 corn crop from 123.56 million to 122.39 million tons. The revision reflects a delayed soybean harvest, which shortens the planting window for second-crop corn, and it also raised its soybean forecast slightly.
A modest cut to Brazil's corn crop reduces export availability at the margin, a mildly bullish signal for corn prices.
After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 324 past neutral weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.7%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.