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Brazil's central safrinha corn states, which account for about 60% of production, were fully planted in wet soils. March rainfall was well below normal, with deficits above 100 mm in Goias and Minas Gerais, and La Nina may bring an earlier end to the wet season.
Growing moisture deficits and a shorter rainy season raise the risk of lower safrinha yields, which supports corn prices.
After 1,465 past bullish weather events, CORN moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
