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Illinois has received only 40 to 50 percent of normal rainfall in the north and 60 to 70 percent in the south since May 1. By June 20, 18% of the state was unusually dry, 51% in moderate drought, and 31% in severe drought.
Severe drought across a major corn and soybean state points to reduced yield potential, supporting feed grain and meal prices. The effect depends on whether rainfall recovers before pollination.
farmdoc.illinois.eduGiovani Preza FontesJun 22, 2023After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
