
Consultancy Agroconsult cut its forecast for Brazil's second corn crop to 55.2 million tons after field surveys in four states hit by planting delays and drought, down from 57 million tons last month. It kept its corn export forecast at 28 million tons.
Government estimates earlier in June put the second crop at 58.2 million tons.
A smaller Brazilian safrinha crop tightens export supply just as Brazil is the main alternative origin to US corn, which supports corn prices. Freight truck cost uncertainty and grain handlers pausing purchases add logistics risk that could widen Brazilian basis discounts.
After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 324 past neutral weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.7%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.