
Embrapa's second agrometeorological bulletin for Mato Grosso shows rainfall from September to February was below the historical average but well distributed, supporting crop development. Heavy February rains caused losses in the southwest of the state where harvest could not proceed.
Rain also helped second-crop corn and cotton sown earlier.
Good soybean harvest conditions in Mato Grosso, Brazil's largest producing state, point to ample export supply and bearish pressure on soybean prices, with localized losses providing limited offset.
After 363 past bearish weather events, Soybeans moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (42% higher; middle half -2.5% to +1.1%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 445 past neutral weather events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.