
Brazilian soybean sowing slowed due to irregular, below-expected rains, and the Paranagua and Parana soybean indicators fell about 1% in the week of Sept. 17-24.
Concerns are growing that adverse weather, the second year in a row, could hurt the safrinha corn crop.
Dry conditions raise the risk of a second consecutive poor safrinha corn crop, which would keep Brazilian corn supplies tight and support feed prices, while weak domestic soybean prices add pressure on the market.
After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 363 past bearish weather events, Soybeans moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (42% higher; middle half -2.5% to +1.1%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.