
SAFRAS & Mercado says Brazilian growers had sown 35.8% of expected soybean area by October 22, ahead of a 27.3% five-year average. Delays are emerging in southern states such as Rio Grande do Sul and Parana because of high soil moisture.
Planting running ahead of average in the main producing states eases yield risk for soybeans, which is mildly bearish for soy complex prices, though southern delays could limit the gain.
After 363 past bearish weather events, Soybeans moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (42% higher; middle half -2.5% to +1.1%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.