
NOAA says La Nina conditions have developed, with an 87% chance they persist through December 2021 to February 2022. An analyst expects Brazil's 2021-22 crops to be far better than last year's drought-hit season, when corn output fell 15%.
Expectations of normal rainfall for Brazil's coming crops reduce the supply-shock premium in corn and soybeans, supporting lower prices.
After 357 past bearish weather events, CORN moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.3%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 363 past bearish weather events, SOY moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (42% higher; middle half -2.5% to +1.1%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.