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NOAA gives an 85% probability that a moderate La Nina will be in place by year-end, after the Pacific transitions from El Nino. Brazilian meteorologists expect more consistent rainfall for the 2024/25 season in Mato Grosso, Goias and central Brazil, which tends to support normal-to-above-normal soybean yields.
Favorable rainfall prospects for central Brazil's major soybean and safrinha corn areas point to larger supply ahead, which is bearish for soybean and corn prices.
ukragroconsult.comJul 17, 2024After 363 past bearish weather events, Soybeans moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (42% higher; middle half -2.5% to +1.1%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 357 past bearish weather events, Corn moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.3%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 118 past bearish weather events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.8% over 5 sessions (35% higher; middle half -3.2% to +0.4%), and -1.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
