
AgRural reports Brazil soybeans 78% planted as of late last week, versus 67% on average, with Mato Grosso essentially complete. Dry conditions in Rio Grande do Sul, which holds about 15% of Brazil's soy acreage, could start to limit yield potential if they persist.
Fast planting supports larger expected Brazilian supplies, while dryness in the south is a modest upside risk that could cap bearish pressure.
After 363 past bearish weather events, SOY moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (42% higher; middle half -2.5% to +1.1%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 55 past neutral weather events, SBM moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.5%), and +0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.