
Brazil's weather is splitting, with improving rain in central and northern soybean areas and drier conditions in the far south. The 2022/23 soybean crop was about 96-97% planted, with Mato Grosso do Sul and Parana crops rated mostly good.
Some dryer pockets in Mato Grosso may see disappointing yields.
Favorable rain in the main producing states supports expectations for a large Brazilian soybean crop, which tends to weigh on soybean meal prices. Dryness in Rio Grande do Sul is a localized offset.
After 324 past neutral weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.7%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 55 past neutral weather events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.5%), and +0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.