Have Brazilian soybean estimates slipped too far from reality?

After 324 past neutral weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.7%), and +0.7% over 20.

• Apr 12, 2026Brazil Soybean Harvest Nears Completion | Red River Farm Network-0.7%
• Dec 26, 2022Brazil Soybeans Benefit from Rain North, Hurt by Dryness Far South+0.6%
• Jan 19, 2023Brazil Soybeans 0.6% Harvested, Wet Weather Slows Early Harvest-1.4%
• Jan 26, 2018Daily rains slow Brazil’s early bean harvest-0.7%
• Dec 26, 2019Brazil Corn and Soybeans Developing Nicely | Red River Farm Network+0.8%

After 55 past neutral weather events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.5%), and +0.1% over 20.

• Dec 26, 2022Brazil Soybeans Benefit from Rain North, Hurt by Dryness Far South+5.7%
• Apr 6, 2026Climate concerns second corn crop and soybean harvest advances to 82% in Brazil+4.0%
• Jan 26, 2018Daily rains slow Brazil’s early bean harvest-1.9%
• Sep 28, 2018Damaged soy crop hits farmers reeling from U.S.-China trade war+0.1%
• Dec 26, 2022Dry Conditions Slow Soybean Planting in Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil+5.7%