The Brazilian soybean harvest is about 80% complete, with only northern areas and Rio Grande do Sul remaining. Early-planted second-crop corn looks good, but later-planted corn will need rain into May.
Harvest progress is largely routine, while the need for May rains on late corn adds modest upside risk to corn prices if rainfall falls short.
After 445 past neutral weather events, CORN moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 324 past neutral weather events, SOY moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.7%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.