Red River Valley harvest results are spotty: soybeans average around normal but range from 30 to 50 bpa depending on moisture. Early corn yields range from 135 to 155 bpa on lighter soils to near 200 bpa where moisture stress was absent.
Regional variability in northern Plains yields adds little to national supply concerns given record expectations, so prices see minimal effect.
After 445 past neutral weather events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 324 past neutral weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.7%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.